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Friday, January 16, 2009

Did foreclosures really kill our economy? The numbers don't add up

According to this 2007 report by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, there are (were) 128,203,000 housing units in the United States.

Of those, 64,231,000, or 50%, are owned free and clear.If 1.2 million homes are in foreclosure at any point in time that would equate to less than 1% of all homes in the country or 1.9% of the 63,972,000 homes that have at least 1 loan on the property.

Then let's assume that each quarter 1.2 million homes go into foreclosure. That equates to less than 4% of all homes in the country (4.8 million homes) or 7.5% of homes with at least 1 loan on the property.

Are we really to believe that because 7.5 out of every 100 homes in the country went into foreclosure our economy was thrown into a recession, mutliple financial corporations were forced to shut down and the stock market tanked? Unless I'm severely off on my math the numbers just aren't adding up.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I guess the problem is the over whelming amount of foreclosures and pre-foreclosures. So many homes are under equity too the debt. This is far worst than the late 80' early 90's and also worst than 1974-75. The idea is if they don't stop the fall soon, about 50% of our homeowners will have no equity in there homes and most likely be negative. When a homeowner goes hard negative in there property, they have no incentive to pay their mortgage. When they go low on their equity they can't refinance and get rid of their higher cost mortgages.
This puts them in trouble paying their mortgages and perpetuates this problem.

So getting people refinanced and getting house sold is paramount. Mortgage money and credit must flow. If real estate gets leveled off, homes sell, the economy will level off.